Philippines at a Crossroads with Midterm Elections

The May 12 vote looks almost like a referendum on the Marcos-Duterte family feud

By Luca Menghini

On May 12, nearly 70 million Filipinos will head to the polls in what is shaping up to be the most consequential midterm election in recent history. More than 18,000 positions are at stake—including 12 Senate seats and all 317 seats in the House of Representatives—but beyond the numbers, this vote is widely viewed as a referendum on the leadership of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and the future of Vice President Sara Duterte. The breakdown of the once-powerful Marcos-Duterte “UniTeam” coalition has turned these elections into a high-stakes proxy war, with each political dynasty attempting to consolidate power and shape the road to the 2028 presidential race.

When Marcos and Duterte joined forces in 2022, their alliance swept them to a resounding victory. But their differences soon emerged. Marcos reoriented the country’s foreign policy away from Beijing and back toward Washington, granting greater U.S. military access through new Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) sites and pursuing deeper ties with allies like Canada and Japan. Duterte, by contrast, has remained relatively silent on China while criticizing Marcos's approach to maritime disputes, even describing his handling of the West Philippine Sea as a “fiasco.” Tensions boiled over in 2024 when Sara Duterte resigned from her cabinet posts and her father, former President Rodrigo Duterte, was arrested and handed over to the International Criminal Court (ICC) on charges of crimes against humanity. The arrest, which many believe was enabled by the Marcos administration, shattered any remaining illusion of unity between the two camps.

These elections are not only a gauge of public sentiment but also a battle for political survival. For Marcos, a strong performance by his endorsed senatorial slate would provide the legislative backing to pursue long-desired constitutional reforms, including the easing of economic restrictions. For Sara Duterte, the stakes are even more existential. Impeached by the House of Representatives, she faces a Senate trial after the midterms. To avoid conviction—and preserve her viability as a presidential candidate in 2028—she must ensure that at least eight of the 24 senators are loyal to her cause. A poor showing by her allies would not only cripple her legal defense but also further marginalize the Duterte family’s influence in national politics.

The battle is playing out not only in traditional campaign venues but also in the digital trenches. The Philippines, a pioneer in information warfare since 2016, has seen a surge in deepfakes, artificial intelligence (AI)-generated content, and disinformation. Both the Marcos and Duterte camps have historically relied on online troll networks and coordinated messaging operations, but with the “UniTeam” fractured, these tools are now being used against one another. A viral deepfake video portraying Marcos allegedly sniffing cocaine—echoing long-standing accusations by Rodrigo Duterte—is just one example of the digital mudslinging that defines the campaign. In response, the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) and lawmakers have called for new rules regulating AI use in campaigning, but enforcement remains a challenge.

Security concerns further complicate the electoral landscape. At least 36 areas have been designated as red zones due to heightened risk of election-related violence, and more than two dozen politically motivated killings have already occurred since candidacies were filed. To mitigate violence, COMELEC has introduced measures such as a nationwide gun ban, special voting hours for seniors and persons with disabilities (PWDs), and Emergency Accessible Polling Places (EAPPs). It has also collaborated with financial platforms like GCash to detect and block vote-buying attempts—a persistent issue in Philippine elections.

Foreign policy looms large over the vote. Marcos’s alignment with the United States, Canada, and regional allies such as Japan and Australia has drawn praise abroad but remains contentious at home. Public sentiment, however, appears to be shifting in his favor on this front. A 2024 survey showed that 73% of Filipinos support increased military measures to assert sovereignty in the West Philippine Sea. By contrast, pro-China candidates—often associated with the Duterte camp—are viewed with increasing suspicion, with over 70% of voters saying they would not support a pro-China politician. This strategic realignment also underscores broader geopolitical stakes, as China intensifies its influence campaigns across Southeast Asia and the U.S. looks to shore up alliances in the region.

Yet, foreign policy alone is unlikely to decide the vote. Economic hardship remains top of mind for most voters. Despite a decline in inflation to 1.8% in March 2025—the lowest rate in nearly five years—public frustration lingers. President Marcos’s signature campaign promise to lower rice prices to ₱20 per kilo has been widely perceived as a failure, with only 4% of Filipinos believing the goal was met. Meanwhile, inflation, job insecurity, and rising costs of basic goods continue to dominate voter concerns, particularly among low-income groups. A recent Pulse Asia survey showed that 72% of Filipinos want Marcos to address inflation in his next State of the Nation Address (SONA)—far more than any other issue.

As the midterm elections approach, voter participation will be critical. COMELEC has raised concerns about turnout, especially among the youth, who represent nearly 40% of the electorate. Voter education campaigns have been ramped up in collaboration with civil society groups, the Catholic Church, and universities. Still, disillusionment and apathy persist, fueled by a toxic information environment and skepticism over the integrity of the political system.

The outcome of the elections will have profound implications—not just for the Philippines, but for Southeast Asia as a whole. Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) neighbors, international observers, and allies like the U.S. and Canada are closely watching the vote, which will determine whether Manila continues its assertive regional role or veers back toward internal instability. The elections will also influence how the Philippines engages with Beijing, particularly as tensions continue to rise in the South China Sea over territorial disputes and confrontations involving the Chinese Coast Guard.

In this context, the May 12 vote represents far more than the routine renewal of legislative mandates. It is a moment of reckoning for the political direction of the country and the power dynamics between its two dominant dynasties. With the Marcos and Duterte factions locked in a battle for control, the Filipino people now face a choice that will define the nation’s future—not only in terms of governance but also in how it positions itself within an increasingly contested Indo-Pacific region.