Thailand, the post-Shinawatra era begins

After the removal of Prime Minister Paetongtarn by the Constitutional Court, the country seeks new political balance

By Tommaso Magrini

Paetongtarn Shinawatra is no longer Thailand’s prime minister, after the Constitutional Court’s August 29 ruling that permanently removed her from office. Born on August 21, 1986 in Bangkok, Paetongtarn is part of the powerful Shinawatra dynasty: daughter of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and niece of Yingluck Shinawatra, herself a former premier. After earning a degree from Chulalongkorn University and a master’s from the University of Surrey, Paetongtarn entered politics in 2023, becoming leader of the Pheu Thai Party. In August 2024, she became the youngest prime minister in Thailand’s history and only the second woman to hold the role. Her government rested on a fragile coalition, which included traditionally conservative parties, built also thanks to the influence of her father, Thaksin, who had returned home after years in exile.

In the early months, Paetongtarn enjoyed decent popularity. A September 2024 poll put her at 31% support, but recently that backing collapsed due to her inability to deliver on promises of economic stimulus, growth, and reform. The situation worsened with the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump against Thailand. 

In June, scandal erupted. A private conversation between Paetongtarn and Hun Sen, Cambodia’s former leader, was recorded and leaked online. In the conversation, Paetongtarn addressed him as “uncle” and said: “please, show a little solidarity with your niece”, offering to “take care of whatever you need.” She also criticized a Thai general, calling him an “opponent.” This all unfolded amid a growing border crisis between the two countries which, weeks later, escalated into five days of crossfire, leaving dozens dead and hundreds of thousands displaced.

On July 1, after the audio became public, 36 senators filed a petition with the Constitutional Court accusing her of violating ethics, integrity, and putting personal interests above the nation’s. The Court suspended Paetongtarn with a 7-2 vote, and on August 29, by a 6-3 majority, the judges ruled her definitive removal for ethical violations and constitutional requirements. Paetongtarn accepted the decision, reiterating that she had acted for citizens’ safety and calling for national unity. Her removal marks yet another blow to the Shinawatra dynasty: she is the sixth figure linked to the family to be ousted by institutional interventions in the past two decades.

Now a phase of political instability begins. The Pheu Thai Party seems destined to lose bargaining power. Its remaining eligible candidate is Chaikasem Nitisiri, 77, a former attorney general, but an agreement with conservatives and the Senate would be needed to secure the 247 votes in the 492-seat House. Among possible scenarios, there is talk of a compromise government led by Anutin Charnvirakul (Bhumjaithai), or early elections, given the divisions and growing opposition, including from the progressive People’s Party. Paetongtarn Shinawatra rose to power as a symbol of revival and continuity for the Shinawatra family, embodying hopes for reform and renewal. Young, pragmatic, and a promise of progress, she became prime minister at a moment of transformation for Thailand. Yet the private dialogue with Hun Sen turned into a boomerang: a diplomatically strategic communication perceived as betrayal, sparking a collapse in support and the fury of the establishment. In just a few months, her fresh leadership dissolved, swept away by the verdict of the Court and disillusioned voters. Now Thailand stands at a new crossroads: to redraw the map of political power within Parliament, or to return to the polls at a time when what the country needs most is stability.