Asean

Lorenzo published in Asean, Economy and trade

ASEAN epicenter of growth in 2023

The year that has just begun features many uncertainties, from the war in Ukraine to inflation, but also one certainty: the pivotal role of Southeast Asia

"ASEAN Matters: Epicentrum of Growth." That is, "ASEAN matters: epicenter of growth." This is the apt slogan chosen by Indonesia for its 2023 rotating presidency of the Southeast Asian bloc of countries. After successfully hosting the G20 summit in Bali, the Indonesian government confidently embarks on its next goal: to coordinate the diverse positions and interests of ASEAN member countries, maintain the unity of the bloc, and further elevate Southeast Asia's stature as a global growth center. It is a mission made less complicated by the trend in the area already in the past few years. In spite of all the difficulties created first by the Covid-19 pandemic and then by the war in Ukraine with its many side effects starting with inflation, the region has held up brilliantly. Perhaps one of the most interesting stories to tell is that of Vietnam, which grew above 8 percent in 2022, the highest figure in 25 years. But it is not just about data and percentage points of gross domestic product. Also counting in a positive way is the openness predisposition always maintained by the bloc, albeit with due differences and discontinuities among member states. In 2023, Indonesia will try to make all these elements "count" even more on the international level, while on the regional level it intends to maintain its focus on expanding economic cooperation at the bloc level. Jakarta will also try to build consensus on food and energy security by strengthening supply chains. There is no shortage of complicated challenges on the domestic front as well, chief among them the crisis in Myanmar, an issue on which the Indonesian presidency will try to make significant progress. Never losing sight of the fact that free trade has been a key driver of Asia's development in recent decades, and Southeast Asia has long been showing that it wants to avoid at all costs not only so-called economic decoupling but also a new cold war in which major powers push everyone else to choose sides. The motto of the Indonesian chairmanship reiterates that ASEAN's choice is one of economic growth and trade integration.

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Annalisa Manzo published in Asean, Politics and strategy

Timor Leste towards ASEAN’s membership

After more than ten years from its candidacy, Dili is preparing to become the eleventh member state of the South-East Asian bloc.

Signed at the end of the 40th ASEAN Summit held in Phnom Penh, the agreement in principle granted Timor-Leste observer status and participation in all ASEAN meetings, including the summit plenaries. The country would be the first new ASEAN member in more than two decades since Cambodia's admission in 1999.

The expected decision comes after years of debate, which includes initial reluctance from Singapore. President Ramos-Horta presented East Timor's candidacy for ASEAN membership in 2011, one year before completing his first five-year term. At the time, the request brought out quite a bit of resistance even at home, due to the country's lack of human and economic resources to adapt to ASEAN programs, and above all the financial obligations that members are required to pay to manage the regional organization. The decision is therefore a great achievement for Ramos-Horta, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1996, together with the then bishop of Dili Carlos Ximenes Belo, for their peaceful campaigns in favor of the independence of East Timor from Indonesia. Inclusion in the regional bloc would in fact seem to be the beginning of a mea culpa from Indonesia towards its former colony.

The history of the two nations is marred by the loss of thousands of lives and the horrific acts of violence that marked the 24-year Indonesian occupation of what was then East Timor. Many more were killed in the aftermath of the United Nations-approved referendum on August 30, 1999, when the East Timorese voted for independence from Indonesia.

In December 1975, with the full approval of US President Gerald Ford and Australian Prime Minister Gough Whitlam, then-President Suharto invaded East Timor, after it was abandoned by Communist-controlled Portugal. For more than two decades, Indonesia acted as the colonial master of East Timor, which was named the twenty-seventh province of the Republic. However, the United Nations has never recognized Indonesia's sovereignty over East Timor, thanks in part to Ramos-Horta's global campaign. In the wave of change that led to the fall of the Suharto regime, his successor BJ Habibie decided to let the people of East Timor choose the future of their country, through a referendum that sanctioned independence from Indonesia, with almost 80% of the votes. Unable to accept such a defeat, the Indonesian army and its militias began an unparalleled destruction, forcing hundreds of thousands of people to flee. Peace was restored only after the United Nations sent multinational troops and the Indonesian military agreed to cooperate. Timor Leste was chosen as the official name of the new Republic, which declared its full independence on May 30, 2002. 

Timor Leste, which shares the islands of Nusa Tenggara with Indonesia, is now among the world's poorest nations, the main reason why Singapore had opposed its entry into the bloc. All these years, it was President Joko Widodo who pushed fellow regional leaders to accept Timor-Leste as part of the group. From the outset Singapore questioned East Timor's capability to join the trade bloc, fearing that such an impoverished state would just become an unnecessary burden on ASEAN.

However, ASEAN has admitted new members despite low human and economic resources. Timor Leste remains a low-income country, but its welfare is better than Myanmar today. It enjoys huge reserves of oil and gas, and in 2021 per capita income was $1,400. 

Helping new member states is standard procedure for ASEAN. Its history shows this first with Laos and Myanmar in 1997 and then Cambodia in 1999. New members of the bloc were also given special treatment to catch up with economically stronger members such as Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand.  

While waiting to receive the same treatment, the conditions are before everyone's eyes. Joining ASEAN would finally give Timor Leste a level playing field within the group and access to a huge market, which would help the country grow faster and be part of decision-making processes. Indonesia will not be able to repay its debt, but it is ready to write a new future.

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Valerio Bordonaro published in Asean, Politics and strategy

ASEAN, 2023 a year of challenges and opportunities

The coming year may further strengthen the economic and diplomatic role of the bloc of Southeast Asian countries, which could also welcome a new member

2022 was the year when ASEAN and Southeast Asia proved to be a platform, indeed "the" platform par excellence, of economic and diplomatic restart at the global level. Not just greater resilience to inflationary pressures, the region posted excellent economic recovery numbers despite all the difficulties associated with the tail end of the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. More. The success of the various multilateral summits held in the area, between G20 in Indonesia and APEC in Bangkok, confirms ASEAN's ability to be considered a reliable diplomatic interlocutor. This is despite some grey areas and unresolved problems, chief among them the crisis in Myanmar on which the Cambodian rotating presidency, despite several attempts, has failed to make significant progress. There will be no shortage of challenges in 2023, but the feeling is that the Indonesian presidency will do all it can to seize the opportunities. After hosting the G20 in Bali, the bloc's largest economy is projecting strongly on its role as a regional leader. Jakarta will thus aim to create a network of intra-regional cooperation ranging from climate change and cyber defense to the digital economy and food security, the latter of which is placed among its 2023 priorities. It is also possible that a decisive boost will come to the entry of an eleventh member into the Association: East Timor. There are those who raise misgivings about the different conditions of Dili's economy with that of the bloc's more advanced countries, but ASEAN will never fully overcome its inherent diversity, but it is proving to be able to exploit it as a strength and a point of pride. ASEAN has managed to prevent the emergence of conflicts between major powers and regional wars since the end of the Cold War, when Vietnamese troops withdrew from Cambodia in 1989, paving the way for the 1991 Paris Peace Accords. The bloc overcame the Asian financial crisis by expanding intra-regional trade and promoting a common foreign exchange regime. More recently, the East Asia Summit successfully brought outside powers to its table, including the United States, China, Russia, Japan and Australia, strengthening the bloc's diplomatic power. The ASEAN "third way" seems to be a path to be pursued more and more decisively.

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Agnese Ranaldi published in Asean, Economy and trade

The fintech revolution in Southeast Asia

In Singapore, the digital market is transforming the banking sector, with the Asian city-state's recent opening to digital banks threatening the monopoly of traditional banks. A regional trend

The expanding digital payments market in Southeast Asia is expected to reach a volume of $2 trillion by 2030. According to a report produced by Google, transactions by that date are expected to triple in comparison to the previous decade, thanks to the driving force of fintechs and growing digital banks in the region. This annual study was co-sponsored with Temasek Holdings, Singapore's state-owned investor, along with other consulting firms, and looks at digital market trends in six countries-Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Another growth vector according to the report is the massive increase in Internet users, expected to reach 460 million by 2022. These numbers are likely to multiply in the coming years, in line with the population development dynamics throughout the Southeast Asian region. While during the pandemic, digital adoption saw a sudden growth throughout the area, now most companies are slowing down the phase of acquiring new customers to improve the engagement of those already reached in the past years. That's why, according to the report, the rapid acceleration seen in the past few years is now embarking on a normalization process, with a modest total of 20 million new users expected by 2022, representing half of what was achieved between 2020 and 2021. In Singapore, the digital market is transforming the banking sector, with the Asian city-state's recent opening to digital banks threatening the monopoly of traditional banks. According to Nikkei Asia's Tsubasa Suruga, the big banking groups can sleep soundly for the time being: their dominant position still keeps them ahead of the game, with their wide range of services and large customer base in tow. For virtual banks to match the profitability of these players will still take time.

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Redazione published in Asean, Global Lens

The results of the EU-ASEAN summit

Editorial by: Alessandra Schiavo, Deputy Director General/Central Director for Asia and Oceania Countries at MAECI

The 1st EU-ASEAN Summit at the level of Heads of State and Government was held in Brussels on December 14. The event celebrated the 45th anniversary of the Dialogue Partnership between the then EEC and ASEAN, as well as its gradual strengthening. Since 1977, the bi-regional relationship has grown exponentially, with the respective members now facing multiple risks and a radically changed international framework: climate change, health vulnerability, post-Covid recovery, energy crisis, food security, as well as intense competition on the political and security fronts.

Against this backdrop, ASEAN has emerged as a key player for the European Union, interested in promoting the values of pluralism and tolerance against crises that undermine stability, such as the aggression in Ukraine and the heinous coup in Myanmar.

The gained realization that only by working together can peace be preserved and shared prosperity generated, the EU became ASEAN's Strategic Partner in 2020, with an increasingly fruitful dialogue on security matters. The EU is also the Association's third largest trading partner. In October, the EU-ASEAN Comprehensive Air Transport Agreement, the first interregional air transport agreement, was signed. At the Summit, the Team Europe Initiative on Sustainable Connectivity with ASEAN (joined for Italy by CDP) was presented; Partnership Comprehensive Agreements with Thailand and Malaysia were also signed.

The Summit concluded with a Joint Final Communiqué, which emphasized economic cooperation and on connectivity, sustainable development, green and digital transition, and identified a point of consensus on some of the thorniest international issues. It was attended by the Presidents and Prime Ministers of EU and ASEAN countries (except Myanmar), as well as the heads of the two Regional Organizations. With the participation of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Italy intended to renew its growing attention to ASEAN, a pivot of stability in the Indo-Pacific and a part of the world that is increasingly essential for geostrategic balances and to which we are increasingly committed. Not surprisingly, the Summit was also an opportunity to enhance the Development Partnership between Italy and ASEAN (in its political-security, economic, cultural and development cooperation volets). A bond that is cultivated through concrete and capacity-building initiatives, and that finds in the annual "High Level Dialogue on ASEAN-Italy economic relations" (whose next edition, in 2023, will be hosted by Thailand) a crucial moment of synthesis.

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Pierfrancesco Mattiolo published in Asean, Economy and trade

EU-ASEAN trade agreements: where do we stand?

In Brussels there is interest in concluding new free trade agreements, although the road is uphill for the negotiations with ASEAN partners. International tensions and domestic concerns (on both sides) make the dialogue more complex. But international trade remains vital for the economies of both blocs.

The Czech EU Council Presidency had identified in mid-2022, as its priorities, the conclusion of new free trade agreements (FTAs) 'particularly in Latin America and the Indo-Pacific (...) with like-minded partners'. A priority shared by the MEPs who, during the meetings with the Prague’s delegates in the first weeks of the Presidency, expressed the urgency of concluding the agreements with New Zealand, Mexico, Chile, Australia, India and MERCOSUR. In other words, the desire to open up to new markets through bilateral agreements is alive in Brussels, but the different negotiating tables are viewed with varying degrees of optimism. The treaties with ASEAN countries under discussion at the moment - with Indonesia and the Philippines - seem more difficult to conclude. Negotiations with Malaysia and Thailand have been stalled for years due to the internal political events in the two countries - if the negotiations with Bangkok are restarting, those with Kuala Lumpur will have to deal with the increasing instability of Malaysian politics. And this despite the fact that the EU has achieved two recent successes - the FTAs with Vietnam and Singapore - in this very region.

The most advanced dialogue is the one with Indonesia. Jakarta is an essential interlocutor for Brussels, and not only when it comes to trade. The country is a key player in ASEAN and also in the G20, as it has demonstrated during its recent presidency of the Summit. Both partners are interested in strengthening trade relations, but there are still a few vexed issues - in particular, the protection of intellectual property rights (IPRs, a chapter that also covers the protection of geographical indications) and the long-standing palm oil issue. The Russian-Ukrainian war could affect this point since, on the European side, demand for Indonesian vegetable oils is growing - due to the need to replace suppliers in the countries involved in the conflict. Another important part of the agreement will concern investments. Here again, the economic opportunity is intertwined with the political one. The EU - like the US - wants to present itself as an alternative to China in strategic infrastructure partnerships through the Global Gateway strategy, designed to respond to Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative. Considering that China-Indonesia trade relations are also growing thanks to the RCEP agreement, the conclusion of an FTA could help Brussels not to lose ground to Beijing.

The protection of IPRs - particularly when it concerns the pharmaceutical sector - is also an area of contention in the negotiations with the Philippines. The perception in Manila is that European negotiators give too much priority to the interests of patent holders at the expense of the general interest of access to medicines. In recent years, negotiations were slow also due to the MEPs' concerns about human rights in the country - during former President Rodrigo Duterte's campaign against drug trafficking, extrajudicial killings by national security forces were heavily criticised - and Strasbourg even called for the suspension of the GSP+ trade regime. Respect for human, civil and political rights is a prerequisite for the continuation of negotiations from the EU perspective - as proof of this, negotiations with Thailand had broken down in 2014 due to the military coup.

Less 'sinister' domestic issues can also block progress in the negotiations. For example, dialogue with Malaysia has stalled because of political uncertainty in Kuala Lumpur politics: recent governments have been backed by shaky and shifting majorities. And it remains difficult to get all stakeholders to agree on complex issues like trade agreements. To return to the subject of palm oil, palm oil farmers are a very influential constituency in Malaysia and view EU policies on the issue with contempt - and indeed all recent administrations have been very confrontational with Brussels, even raising the issue at the WTO, backed by Indonesia. On the other hand, European civil society as well has strong and opposite views on the issue of palm oil and influences the European institutions in this regard. European negotiators have to juggle between the demands of their citizens and those of the partners' delegations, which are sometimes internally divided - in some ASEAN countries, ministries of the same government are competing with each other to foster the agenda of the pressure groups they are most closely linked, to the detriment of other parts of the economy or society.

Despite the difficulties, continuing the liberalisation of trade relations can bring great benefits to both blocs, which owe much of their economic dynamism to exports. The conclusion of bilateral agreements between the EU and individual ASEAN countries could facilitate negotiations for a future region-to-region FTA - this seems to be the ultimate goal of Brussels after the failure of the same project in 2009. Overcoming the technical and political difficulties - which we have only brushed upon in this article - would be a positive signal at a time when unilateralism seems to be becoming the hallmark of international trade policy.

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Lorenzo published in Asean, Politics and strategy

ASEAN centre of global connectivity

Diversification, regional integration and a resilient development plan. These are the three tools with which South-East Asia can strengthen its role

Editorial by Lorenzo Lamperti

As we know, ASEAN has always been a cornerstone of a 'third way' of global diplomacy, based on neutrality and pacifism. In a context like the current one, between the war in Ukraine and various turbulences that also reach the Asia-Pacific area, it becomes even more urgent for South-East Asia to succeed in strengthening its policy of 'non-alignment', or rather 'non-confrontation'. Perhaps by linking its vision with that of those who have the same needs, that is, to avoid decoupling or a return of a world divided into blocs. How are the countries of the ASEAN group trying to pursue this goal? The first tool, identified by Xue Gong of Nanyang Technology University in Singapore, is that of diversification. In the area of regional connectivity, for example, South-East Asia has been looking for more partners to help meet the need for regional infrastructure. In addition to China's Belt and Road and Japan's Partnership for Quality Infrastructure, other platforms to enhance regional integration are also being explored, such as the Asean-Europe Connectivity Agenda and the Asean Regional Integration Support from the EU (ARISE) programme. The second tool is to strengthen regional integration. By keeping regional dialogues open and leveraging their strategic value for economic benefits, ASEAN member states have been able to collaborate with various regional actors to strengthen economic integration. An important example is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The last tool, according to Xue Gong, is the definition of a resilient development plan. Compared to the Cold War period, today non-aligned countries would have access to more resources due to economic interconnection. Because they have prospered through regional integration, South East Asian elites understand better than anyone the importance of an open regional economy that attracts private investment and mutually beneficial trade relations. A strong, attractive and densely connected South East Asian market increases the participation of other countries in the region, including that of the great powers. And in the more globalised world of the 21st century, ASEAN can truly elevate its status not only commercially but also diplomatically by fostering interaction between the powers.

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Redazione published in Asean, Global Lens

The EU-ASEAN Commemorative Summit

The leaders of the two blocs meet in Brussels to celebrate the partnership and find new spaces for cooperation

By Chiara Suprani

The 14th of December 2022, the heads of state and national leaders of the ASEAN bloc countries and the European Union will meet in Brussels for the first time, to commemorate the 45th anniversary of the formalization of the bilateral partnership, elevated to "strategic partnership" as reported by High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borell in a speech of August 4th 2022. All the heads of state will be present, with the exception of the Burmese leaders, while the response of the freshly appointed Malaysian Prime Minister is still awaited. In view of the events that have characterized recent years, the occasion, preceded by two meetings on December 13th, the Youth Summit and the tenth EU-ASEAN Business Summit, is of great importance. Given the international climate, security will be one of the key themes of the event. Brussels could try to get a clearer position from the ASEAN countries on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in order to receive more guarantees on compliance with EU sanctions imposed on Russia. The event, co-chaired by Cambodia, which holds the ASEAN presidency until the end of the year, will address key issues in the bilateral relationship between ASEAN and European countries such as trade and sustainability, renewable energy, investment and connectivity. Some of these key junctions have already been preceded by bilateral agreements between member countries such as the "Partnership for Sustainability" between Sweden and Indonesia. Jakarta, which will hold the ASEAN presidency for 2023, has gone through 11 rounds of negotiations to draft a free trade agreement with the EU, which has not been reached yet. According to The Diplomat, the EU should aim for a negotiated compromise with Indonesia, in order to get the latter to sign the treaty, a compromise similar to the one granted to Vietnam and Singapore, countries with which it closed negotiations by also lowering development and ecological standards. However, on December 6th, Brussels passed a new law to prevent the import of goods responsible for deforestation. The law has been strongly criticized by Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia. Among these products there are: coffee, soya and palm oil, crops that in 2020 recorded exports of 2, 17 and 27 billion US dollars respectively. According to Nikkei Asia, the EU at the 45th Anniversary Summit will encourage Southeast Asia to assume important roles in global supply chains, following the logic of the "friend-shoring". The neologism of the "friend-shoring" takes up the idea of the previous on-shoring and off-shoring, but linking the relocation in countries that are considered friends. Additionally, ASEAN and the EU signed a new level of connectivity cooperation in October with the Comprehensive Air Transport Agreement (CATA AE), the world’s first agreement of this kind. The agreement not only benefits travellers with direct access to new destinations, but also calls for a greater level of coordination, managerial as well, between ASEAN countries. With 2023 just around the corner, a general easing of the pandemic containment measures, and the signing of the CATA, there are conditions for new business opportunities for European companies, which guarantee fair and transparent market conditions. Finding the right channel of communication between interests, needs and sustainable standards could be one of the hot spots of the December 14th dialogue. Yet, between the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian war, amid slowdowns in supply chains, the strategic export bans of individual member states to prevent further economic crises the perceptions of the bilateral relationship appear to be positive. According to the EU-ASEAN Business Sentiment Survey, the Southeast Asian region is considered first for better economic opportunities in the next 5 years. Not only that, in general all the prospects for trade and investment have obtained in the survey positive growth expectations. In conclusion, on the 14th December, many eyes will turn to Brussels and the still untapped potential of the ASEAN-EU bilateral relationship.

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Redazione published in Asean, Politics and strategy

ASEAN, the friend everyone needs

At a time of widespread economic, trade and geopolitical turmoil, the Southeast Asian region is proving to be a safe haven for investment.

Editorial by Alessio Piazza

The tail end of the Covid-19 pandemic, the global energy crisis, galloping inflation, the rising dollar, weakening Chinese demand. Just to stay on the economic and financial side. Not to mention the geopolitical one, between war in Ukraine and various other fronts of tension. In short, the world is not having a particularly peaceful time. Yet, there is one region that is proving more resilient than others. A term that may have been overused recently but which seems to fit the economies of the ASEAN region like a glove. The bloc's six largest economies-Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam-are proving to be anything but fragile in the face of global shocks in recent months and years. Singapore is gaining ground in financial services and high technology, Vietnam and Malaysia are receiving greater inflows of foreign direct investment in manufacturing, and Indonesia is receiving record funds to exploit its mineral resources, particularly nickel. Not only that. In addition to greenfield investments, Southeast Asia was the largest recipient of mergers and acquisitions completed in Asia in the first half of 2022, having received as much as 56% of total inflows. Inbound transactions in Indonesia alone were twice as high as those in mainland China, still held back by anti-Covid restrictions. Interestingly, it is not only the West that deploys more capital in ASEAN, but also China, which has reduced offshore operations in other regions to focus specifically on Southeast Asia. The 10-member, 680-million-person association already accounts for 3.4% of global gross domestic product and 7.7% of world exports. And its centrality is set to grow. But also on the political front, the region has proven to be an indispensable platform for dialogue, as demonstrated during the recent multilateral summits held and successfully concluded between Cambodia (ASEAN summit), Indonesia (G20 summit), and Thailand (APEC summit). It is no coincidence that the Financial Times recently described the ASEAN area as "the diplomatic and trade friend everyone needs."

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Valerio Bordonaro published in Asean, Politics and strategy

Global dialogue restarts from ASEAN

Cambodia, Indonesia and Thailand are the three cardinal points of the multilateral summits that marked the return of diplomacy at the tail end of a turbulent year

The difficult recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, inflation rising at a record pace, the war in Ukraine, and tensions between the United States and China. In short, there were all the ingredients for a huge washout. Instead, the two weeks of multilateral summits in Southeast Asia ended on a high note. Cambodia can breathe a sigh of relief after hosting the ASEAN summit without a hitch. Concerns about the global economy, threats of recession, and food and energy security took center stage over the impasse of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Myanmar problem. Moreover, the 10 ASEAN members managed to make some tough decisions on long-standing issues. Starting with the bloc's announcement that it has accepted East Timor "in principle" as the bloc's 11th member, after more than 10 years of consideration. While eventual full membership will require a "criteria-based road map," East Timor will be able to attend all meetings as an observer member, albeit without decision-making rights. Relations with the United States and India have been elevated to ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships, making them the third and fourth dialogue partners to be granted this status, after China and Australia. Phnom Penh has demonstrated its ability to manage great-power rivalry. It has attended and co-chaired two summits with the United States, despite poor bilateral relations, showing the ability to handle difficult situations. Indonesia and Thailand achieved the same, with a final joint statement condemning the war in Ukraine but with a balanced text also accepted as "constructive" by their Russian counterparts. Above all, the G20 and APEC summits served as a springboard for a newfound dialogue between Washington and Beijing, with the important face-to-face meeting between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping in Bali. Meeting that was followed by intense diplomatic activity where the West, Asia and the Pacific seemed willing to build bridges in relations. For Southeast Asia and ASEAN, a test of maturity passed with flying colors.

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Redazione published in Asean, Economy and trade

The results of the APEC summit in Bangkok

The APEC 2022 Leaders' Summit in Bangkok closed with a joint declaration, an unexpected outcome at the opening of the meetings. For Thailand it is a success. The account of what happened diplomatically (with China and the United States in the lead) and the results of the summit

Article by Francesco Mattogno

Better times have been seen, that's for sure. But the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, staged in Bangkok from 14 to 19 November, went better than expected and ended with a joint declaration by the leaders of the group's 21 economies. The outcome was not trivial: announced failure was long around the corner. With a final sigh of relief, Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha (who held the 2022 chairmanship of the economic forum) called the summit 'a success'.

On Friday, just hours before the leaders - who were expected to meet for the last two days of the APEC meeting - officially opened, news of North Korea's launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile arrived in Thailand. US Vice President Kamala Harris, standing in for President Joe Biden, called an emergency meeting with the number ones of Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada and New Zealand to 'strongly condemn' Pyongyang's actions.

For three days, Xi Jinping was the undisputed star in Bangkok. Fresh from a G20 summit full of bilateral engagements and talks, Xi confirmed his return to the world diplomatic scene by doing the same in Thailand. "The Asia-Pacific is no one's backyard and should not become an arena for competition between great powers," he began in a letter presented at the meeting between representatives of APEC countries. Reiterating his no to a new 'cold war', Xi reassured partners of China's willingness to pursue 'economic cooperation' and rejected 'protectionism' and the 'politicisation of trade relations'. He then moved on to the face-to-face meetings.

The most significant, though not the most important in terms of content, was Saturday's (brief) one with Kamala Harris. It served to confirm what he said with Biden in Bali: China and the US must 'keep the lines of communication open'. Instead, the meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was more dense. Beyond diplomatic pleasantries, during their first face-to-face meeting the two leaders discussed security and Tokyo's concerns about the South China Sea, the Senkaku Islands (which China claims as its own and calls Diaoyu) and Taiwan. While Kishida reiterated the importance of maintaining 'peace' over the strait, Xi confirmed that China does not accept 'external interference'.

New Zealand's Premier Jacinda Ardern raised the same concerns as her Japanese counterpart in her talks with the Chinese leader. On the Taiwan issue, the exchange Xi Jinping had with Taipei's representative at the summit, TSMC founder Morris Chang, was interesting. A light-hearted but 'pleasant and polite' conversation, Chang said at the press conference. In addition to host Prayut, Xi also held 'business' talks with the prime ministers of Singapore (Lee Hsien Loong) and Papua New Guinea (James Marape), and the presidents of Chile and the Philippines, Gabriel Boric and Ferdinand Marcos Jr. respectively.

The Philippines is one of the countries with which China has open disputes over the South China Sea. The general secretary of the CCP asked Marcos to 'not take sides' and not to choose between Washington and Beijing, but on this front Harris scored a point. Following the APEC summit, Biden's deputy left for Manila. There he scheduled meetings with Marcos Jr. and his vice-president, Sara Duterte, before travelling on Tuesday 22 to the province of Palawan, right next to the disputed South China Sea area with Beijing.

During her two days in Bangkok, Harris sought to challenge Xi on both diplomacy (there were many bilaterals for her as well, discussing semiconductors with Morris Chang himself) and rhetoric. "The United States is a proud Pacific power," she declared at the summit, "and has an enduring economic commitment to the region." In short: we are here to stay. The US number two was accompanied by Trade Representative Katherine Tai - who spoke with counterpart ministers from South Korea and China - and Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

After receiving the baton of the APEC chairmanship from Prayut (the next summit will be held in San Francisco in 2023), Harris committed the US to Thai nuclear development. "Our investments are transparent, climate-friendly" and do not "put countries in debt", he said in clear allusion to China.

Despite calls for cooperation and trade liberalisation, the subtext thus always seems to be the Washington-Beijing confrontation/clash. For French President Emmanuel Macron, the summit's external guest, avoiding this kind of 'choice between the two superpowers' is crucial to ensuring the region's economic development. This is also what emerges from the leaders' final joint statement.

It was not the strengthening of trade ties, however, that risked not producing the summit's concluding document. The needle of the scales remained the disagreements over the war in Ukraine, which were resolved with a compromise in line with that already reached at the G20. While 'recognising that APEC is not the [appropriate] forum for security issues, security issues can have significant consequences for the global economy', the statement read. Thus, it was decided to include that 'most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine' on the understanding that there are 'other points of view' on the conflict.

It was a linguistic balancing act that allowed Thailand to drive home the declaration, and thus get the other 20 economies in the group to share its agenda. The leaders approved a work plan for a future regional free trade agreement - building on the existing RCEP and CPTPP - and for facilitating cross-border travel, made more complicated by covid. Above all, with the declaration, APEC countries effectively adopted the Bangkok Bio-Circular-Green (BCG) project, whereby members commit to invest in economic activities that protect environmental sustainability. The actual sustainability of APEC projects and regional economic integration will all be issues delegated to the future. There have been some signs of thawing, but divisions between China and the US remain, over trade and the war in Ukraine: in general, over the fate of the current international system. Probably only the absence of a truly weighty profile to represent Russia in Bangkok (there was Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov) prevented the summit from failing. These days, a success.

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Lorenzo published in Asean, Global Lens

The success of the Indonesian G20

The Bali summit concluded with a joint statement expressing unease over the war in Ukraine. And it showed the first signs of a thaw between the West and China

Now we can say it. The G20 summit in Bali was a success. The Indonesian rotating presidency had to deal with the most complicated year in recent times. With the world still grappling with the tail end of the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine further complicated the plans of world economies. Not only that, it has also exacerbated the climate between Russia and the West, but also between the United States and China. With these premises, the risk that the summit would turn out to be a flop was high. Instead, it did not. It is true that the discussion was largely dominated by conflict, but it is equally true that everyone present was ready and willing to engage in dialogue. After the preamble of the bilateral between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, it kind of all came cascading down, with the Chinese president meeting with all the various European leaders. The Indonesian rotating presidency secured the signing of a joint statement in which leaders of the major economies hoped for cooperation to address the various challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic and exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, pledging to provide necessary support to the world's most vulnerable countries. Jakarta celebrated three "concrete outcomes" of the summit. The first: the creation of a health fund, which will help countries prepare for future pandemics. The fund has received pledges totaling $1.5 billion from member countries and international organizations. The second, welcomed by the entire ASEAN bloc: the creation of a trust fund to help low-income, small states and vulnerable middle-income countries deal with macroeconomic problems, including those caused by pandemic and climate change. The third, more domestic: the commitment of $20 billion in public and private funding from the United States and Japan over the next five years to help Indonesia accelerate its transition to renewable energy. The final declaration marks an important step of cooperation by the entire G20, including China and India, and perhaps opens a window of dialogue with Russia, which welcomed the "balance" of the summit's conclusions. Southeast Asia is confirmed as an indispensable platform for advancing global diplomacy.

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