Asean

Redazione published in Asean, Politics and strategy

United States and ASEAN, a dynamic relationship

In the new and complex geopolitical scenario, both the US and ASEAN have an interest in rediscovering their mutual strategic importance. 

The relationship between the United States and South-East Asian countries has undoubtedly been at the heart of the creation and development of ASEAN since the late 1960s. Although the Association of Southeast Asian Nations was born in 1967 out of the community-oriented impulse of its five founding members and out of their common attempt to halt the advance of Soviet communism in Southeast Asia, it is clear that the United States’ contribution has been fundamental for ASEAN’s development. The common anti-Soviet sentiment made ASEAN a valuable American ally in East Asia in the 1970s and 80s: it is in fact no coincidence that in May 1986 the then-President of the United States Ronald Reagan defined “support for and cooperation with ASEAN […] a linchpin of American Pacific policy”. However, the end of the Cold War represented the end of the honeymoon between the United States and ASEAN. Although formally the relations between the two blocs never ceased, the collapse of the USSR marked the end of the expansion of Soviet communism, thus eclipsing Asia among American strategic priorities. Soon enough though, as early as the mid-2000s, the emergence of international terrorism and, more markedly, China’s comeback on the global geopolitical scene, forced the US to reassess the strategic importance of Asia-Pacific and, therefore, of ASEAN. The advent of the Obama administration certified this change of pace in American politics. In fact, breaking patterns with his last predecessors, Obama immediately recognized the centrality of the Asia-Pacific region and plainly stated that ASEAN would come to shape the 21st century.

However, the rediscovery of Southeast Asia for the United States is not purely geopolitical. In fact, ASEAN represents the US’ fourth largest trading partner, with a total volume of exchanged goods and services of over 330 billion dollars in 2018 alone. ASEAN runs a trade surplus with the United States of over 85 billion dollars per year and has been a privileged destination for US FDI, for a total stock of over 271 billion dollars to date. The growing economic weight of ASEAN, combined with its immense potential to balance Chinese ambitions in the region, render it a natural ally fot the US in the Asia-Pacific region. Similarly, the United States represent a valuable commercial partner and a useful geopolitical ally for ASEAN. By virtue of the US’ status as ASEAN's third commercial partner and thanks to its essential role in maintaining a stable balance of power in the Pacific region, both of which are vital elements for the long-term prosperity of the Association, South-East Asian countries have an interest in maintaining a strong and lasting relationship with the US, both on the economic and international relations terms. However, the recent advent of Donald Trump to the White House has contributed to further changing the scenario. The skepticism of the current US President towards multilateral solutions, which prompted him to sit out the US-ASEAN summit twice, made many people turn up their noses in South-East Asia. Despite the innate bilateralism that drives Trump's political agenda, however, the American diplomatic-military apparatus knows well the strategic importance of ASEAN for the United States. These two souls determine a certain ambivalence in US approach to South-East Asia, which has manifested itself several times, even within the Trump administration itself. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo not only reiterated his full support for ASEAN regional institutions, but on the occasion of a joint video-conference held on April 22 between the representatives of the two powers to discuss the effects of the Covid-19 crisis, he launched the “US-ASEAN Health Futures initiative”, a $35 million plan designed to support ASEAN countries in the fight against coronavirus, which adds to the over $3.5 billion that the US has already invested in the South-East Asian health sector in the past 20 years.

With the end of the Cold War and the bipolar world order, relations between the United States and ASEAN have experienced more than three decades of ups and downs. The complex, at times ambiguous, American strategy in the Pacific has led to a dynamic and evolving relationship between the two. However, if ASEAN and the United States wish to maintain their presence in the Pacific, they must necessarily rediscover each other's economic and geopolitical centrality, collaborating to build a more balanced regional and international system. 

Article edited by Andrea Dugo.

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Redazione published in Itasean, Politics and strategy

Global Economic Recovery – New Goals & New Drivers

On June the 9th and 10th, the International Conference on Global Economic Recovery – New Goals & New Drivers was held in Beijing, organized by the China Center for International Economic Exchange, within the Global Think Tank Online Forum on International Cooperation to Combat Covid-19.

The Vice-President of the Italy-ASEAN Association, Professor Romeo Orlandi, attended the event. Here is the transcript of his speech:

It is obviously difficult to ascertain whether the recovery after the Covid-19 pandemic will be quick, full, partial and which shape it will take. Still, some forecasts are possible, based on current data and past experiences. Very likely, the L shaped recovery will be avoided. Actually, in this case it would be a stagnation, not a recovery. We have already signs in China, in Asia and in some European countries that probably and hopefully the worst is behind us. A fast rebound is on sight, as envisaged by the majority of international organizations and governments. If so, we have a couple of questions to be answered. Will the recovery compensate the recession? In addition, is a new crisis a clear and present danger? The first answer is quite easy: in a short period, the recovery will not regain what we have lost in terms of GDP. The negative impact has been – and still is – so deep that wiping out the loss would be a dream. Statistically, too, that will not be possible. Moreover, there is a good possibility of another crisis, due to the dynamics of the economy and the unpredictability of the Coronavirus. The best guess is a W shaped recovery, which means we are supposed to live with uncertainty, in both good and difficult times. Crisis and recoveries will probably be on governments’ agendas and on ordinary people’s lives for quite some time.

As a consequence, we will be asked to manage a complex situation, where concepts like collaboration and sharing will not simply sound as tools of propaganda. Take the case of the decoupling. Many augur that the economies of the industrialized countries should and must separate their destinies from those of emerging countries. The rationale for this position is in front of our eyes: a decline in China and Asia’s supply have repercussions on the global value chain. This is an obvious result of the globalized delocalization originated in the West. A virus in Asia affected the whole world. Then, with the spread of the epidemic, also the industrialized countries were affected with a tremendous slowdown in economic activities, a painful and blatant crisis of demand. So, what is the good in finding the culprit, to point the finger to others? Is it a wise policy to cancel the integration of different economies and replace it with protectionism and trade war? It is not a matter of right or wrong. It is crucial to consider if we can go back to the old times. Reshoring is now deemed fashionable, aimed at creating new employment in industrialized countries. Will it be possible? Are we going to see the restoration of smoking chimneys now dismissed? Are we ready to create overnight another “factory of the world”, the same we witnessed in Asia over the last few decades? The answer is probably not. You cannot build another industrial powerhouse overnight. So, my final remark, is that the only way to pass this tragic moment is to negotiate, continuing trade talks and accept the best sides of globalization without demonizing it after having created it.

 

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Redazione published in Asean, Culture and society

Women’s conditions in ASEAN during Covid-19

The sanitary emergency poses new challenges to gender equality

Gender equality is still an unresolved issue in ASEAN countries: a report from the World Economic Forum shows that, without major changes, it will take another 163 years to close the gender gap in South-East Asia and the Pacific, more than in any other region of the world. Despite significant differences within individual countries (from the Philippines ranked 16th in terms of gender equality, to Myanmar occupying the 114th position), this report sheds light on the gender inequality that characterizes the majority of ASEAN countries.

With the advent of the Covid-19 pandemic and of its consequences, these barriers to women’s empowerment have become even stronger. As reported by UN Women, in the Asia-Pacific region, women had to take on greater domestic responsibilities during the lockdown, including child care and assistance to the elderly. Because of this, not only women have been more exposed to the virus, but also domestic inequalities have worsened; having to take care of the family and of household chores, women have had less time to work, differently from their male counterparts. Moreover, in ASEAN countries the health sector is characterized by a wide pay gap between men and women, as well as by a low representation of women in decision-making positions. Although more than 80% of nurses and health assistants in the front line in the fight against the virus are women, men occupy 72% of top positions in health leadership, and receive higher remuneration compared to their female colleagues.

Nevertheless, the Covid-19 pandemic has also resulted in changes and potential opportunities for the women of the region. The transition to the digital economy, and the massive increase in the use of e-commerce and online communication platforms, opened a sector in which women can become entrepreneurs and increase their participation in the economy. For example, the rapid growth of e-commerce in Indonesia has fostered female entrepreneurship. To facilitate women’s entry into this sector, ASEAN countries should develop policies aimed at reducing the digital gap between genders. A number of social and institutional initiatives that promote the viewing of women as key resources for building a sustainable economy also encourage greater female empowerment. For example, in Cambodia, women entrepreneurs engaged in sustainable businesses will be able to get financial support for their ideas through the funds of the Women’s Livelihood Bond, a bond series issued by the Impact Investment Exchange.

Despite the obstacles posed by the Covid-19 emergency, ASEAN countries are determined to achieve greater gender equality, by providing useful tools to close the current gender gap. In addition to seeing a greater number of women in leadership positions in 2020, recently the ASEAN Women for Peace Registry convened an online meeting to discuss initiatives to promote the role of women in South-East Asia. This is an occasion that bodes well for the future of gender policies in the region and strengthens the ASEAN’s women hopes.

Article edited by Elena Colonna.

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Redazione published in Asean, Economy and trade

EU and ASEAN: so far yet so close

EU-ASEAN cooperation gradually expands to new areas, among which the fight against coronavirus

The European Union and ASEAN represent the two most advanced regional integration projects in the world. The integrationist spirit that characterizes the two blocs makes them privileged interlocutors on the international stage: it is no coincidence that in the EU-ASEAN Blue Book 2020, published by the European External Action Service, the EU and ASEAN are defined as "natural partners” in the achievement of several common objectives, such as the preservation of the multilateral order, the promotion of sustainable development and the protection of human rights.

However, to date, trade relations between the two blocs are certainly the jewel in the crown of the EU-ASEAN relationship. The EU is the second largest commercial partner of ASEAN behind China and represents 14% of the foreign trade of Southeast Asian countries. In addition, the EU is by far the first source of foreign direct investments in ASEAN countries, for a cumulative amount of over 337 billion euros. Despite a relatively limited economic weight compared to the EU in terms of GDP size (3111 billion dollars against over 18290 billion), ASEAN is the third largest trading partner of the European Union behind the United States and China, and its share of FDI in EU countries has been growing steadily. The EU and ASEAN are committed to increasing their trading volume, which already is at over 273 billion euros in goods and over 85 billion euros in services, by means of the creation of a large free trade area between the two regions. The difficulty of striking a deal of such magnitude so far has prompted the EU to negotiate bilateral agreements with individual ASEAN member countries, including Singapore (already in force since November 2019) and Vietnam (in force since June 2020), but always with a view to a future overarching agreement with the entire Association, which remains the primary objective of the Union.

The outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic has led EU and ASEAN to collaborate on an unprecedented side, the health sector. The common multilateral vocation has driven the two powers to organize a joint ministerial videoconference on March 20th, during which they both affirmed the importance of international cooperation for the effective resolution of the Covid-19 crisis. In compliance with this principle, on April 24th, the EU donated €350 million to the ASEAN countries in order to support them in the fight against Covid-19 and its economic and social consequences.

The EU and ASEAN, by virtue of their common faith in the ideals of supranational cooperation, are approaching one another, both from an economic and commercial perspective and from a political one. The Covid-19 crisis, a genuine stress test for the EU-ASEAN relationship, is showing, once and for all, the indispensability of international collaboration in solving problems that know no borders and that involve everyone.

 

Article edited by Andrea Dugo.

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Redazione published in Asean, Economy and trade

E-commerce: a driving force for the ASEAN economy

Despite the crisis caused by the virus, the ASEAN economy could recover thanks to the opportunities offered by digital commerce.

The restrictive measures taken to combat Covid-19 have had a major impact on citizens' economic activities and habits, causing a deep global crisis. Despite the encouraging forecasts of the International Monetary Fund, Asia will be one of the most affected regions, with a high risk of increasing poverty.

Faced with the upheavals of the regional and international market, businesses and governments in the ASEAN area are now committed to finding new ways of meeting supply and demand, while still respecting the security and social distance needed to manage the virus. In this regard, it seems like digital commerce could be an interesting tool.

A study by Facebook and Bain & Company predicts that by 2025 consumers in the area will spend about three times more on digital platforms than in 2018, thanks to greater purchasing power and more widespread internet access. The sector is therefore growing rapidly and could reach about $ 150 billion in value in 2025.

The pandemic seems to have speeded up this process, as claimed by Pierre Poignant, CEO of Lazada, one of the largest e-commerce platforms in the ASEAN area, controlled by Alibaba. Because of travel restrictions and social distancing measures needed to contain the pandemic, the relationship between supply and demand has changed, increasing the opportunities for online interaction. The growth of the consumers associated with changes in consumption has seen a strong increase in the purchase of online products of any type.

Businesses also perceived the potential of e-commerce after the restrictions imposed by the pandemic: because they had to close the retail trade channel, they invested huge resources on new digital infrastructures, as shown by the data from the study "Riding the Digital Wave: Southeast Asia's Discovery Generation ”, which was involved about 13,000 respondents and over 30 CEOs and venture capitalists.

E-commerce can therefore become an opportunity for the development of ASEAN countries and in particular for SMEs that characterize their economic system and operate in extra-urban areas. In these areas, in fact, the match between supply and demand usually took place on site, with a relatively close circle of consumers from the same territory. Now, thanks to digital channels, companies will instead be able to access geographically distant markets and the same will happen for consumers who will see the multiplication of goods and services otherwise not accessible with the traditional hand by hand exchange.

Many countries in Southeast Asia have realized the importance of online commerce and appear determined to take advantage of its opportunities. Vietnam, after a 20% increase in online trade caused by the lockdown and the restrictions on circulation imposed, aims to reach the podium of ASEAN's digitized economies by 2030 with full 5G coverage of the national territory. Malaysia intends to strengthen the development strategy launched in 2019 under the motto of "One click, a million opportunities", increasing the adoption of new technologies to support and stimulate the national economy, supporting SMEs in the digitization process. Singapore has instead put in place some measures to strengthen e-commerce and stimulate companies to expand their business on the online market, also providing them with training and assistance, as well as the means for the start-up expenses on online portals.

In the economy of the ASEAN countries, therefore, commerce 4.0 is growing and developing, but it will be essential that local governments support this process. The first step will be to spread internet access also in rural areas and then encourage the spread of mobile and cashless payments. Finally, it will be necessary to prepare lean and efficient rules to regulate the sector and put it in a position to produce benefits for all. It appears that e-commerce can be a useful tool to revive ASEAN economies in the context of the current crisis.

 

Articole edited by Gabriel Zurlo.

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Redazione published in Asean, Politics and strategy

ASEAN’s collaborative response to COVID-19

After a delayed initial response, ASEAN accomplished a praised multilateral approach to fighting COVID-19

At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations received international criticism for its lack of cooperation and its slow response; given their geographical proximity and intense economic relations with China, ASEAN countries were extremely vulnerable to the spread of the pandemic and soon confirmed their first cases of the virus. However, in the past few months, ASEAN achieved an effective containment of the outbreak, both by demonstrating regional solidarity and by strengthening international cooperation in the face of the COVID-19 challenge.

 

The intergovernmental organization acted as a bloc, taking collective steps against the pandemic and demonstrating unity and multilateral cooperation. Through several video-conferences held qith the ASEAN Coordination Council, member states were able to share information regarding containment and mitigation measures. In the existing framework of the ASEAN Health sector and the goals stated in the ASEAN Post-2015 Health Development Agenda, the Emergency Operations Centre for public health emergencies provided a platform for daily situational updates, information on prevention and response measures; while the ASEAN BioDiaspora Regional Virtual Centre provided reports of national risk assessments through big data analytics. Moreover, ASEAN member states showed solidarity with regards to laboratory and medical supply needs: Vietnam and Brunei offered support in the form of medical equipment, including test kits, to Laos and Cambodia. On the 9th of April, ASEAN established a Regional Reserve of Medical Supplies and a COVID-19 ASEAN Response Fund, to support the needs of member states and enable rapid response to the sanitary emergency. These regional agreements have ensured a successful response to the COVID-19 outbreak, proven by the low number of cases in most of the 10 ASEAN member states.

 

In addition to such efforts, ASEAN countries managed to contain the pandemic through cooperation with external partners, countries and institutions. On the 10th of March, ASEAN ministers held a video-conference with the European Union, to discuss measures for the immediate public health risks, as well as for the longer-term socio-economic concerns caused by the virus. On the 14th of April, a video summit between the 10 ASEAN members, China, Japan and South Korea was held to enhance cooperation, including the exchange of information, updates on clinical treatments, measures for prevention and control, and sourcing of medical supplies. On the 30th of April, another video conference followed between the Health Ministers of ASEAN and the United States, restating the crucial importance of international cooperation for effectively fighting the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

Article edited by Elena Colonna

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Redazione published in Asean, Politics and strategy

The impact of Covid-19 on democracy in ASEAN

The state of emergency has prompted leaders of certain countries to impose worrying measures

The emergency measures taken by some governments of the ASEAN countries to address the health crisis are causing concern in the international community. Some fear that governments could take advantage of the situation to consolidate their power at the expense of their citizens' freedoms and rights.

In early March, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights urged all countries involved in the health emergency to guarantee the centrality of human rights and international norms. In this regard, the President of the ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights also reminded the governments of the area that restrictions for public health reasons must be strictly necessary, of limited duration, and based on scientific and non-discriminatory evidence.

However, the approach taken by some governments of the ASEAN countries risks disappointing these expectations. The Asian Forum for Human Rights and Development reports that the Philippines, Thailand, Cambodia and Myanmar are implementing policies that risk violating international standards. In Thailand and Myanmar, the situation regarding freedom of expression is worrying, especially online. In the Philippines, broad powers have been conferred to law enforcement officers, whose action is often left to the discretion of agents.

In particular, the situation in Cambodia is attracting significant attention. On 31 March, the Cambodian government passed a law conferring full powers on the executive to manage the emergency, including unlimited surveillance of telecommunications, control of the media and social networks, and the possibility of prohibiting or restricting the dissemination of information other than from government sources. A reporter has already been arrested for quoting a speech by Prime Minister Hun Sen in the newspaper, and dozens of people have been charged and arrested for spreading "fake news" online. Several groups of activists and institutions of the international community have strongly condemned the measures imposed by Prime Minister Hun Sen, considered excessive and worrying. It is indeed feared that the emergency provisions implemented by the Cambodian authorities may stay in place and be enforced long after the end of the emergency.

The situation in Cambodia and other South-East Asian countries such as the Philippines, Thailand and Myanmar, is now under observation by international bodies. It will be crucial to understand how governments will behave with the gradual recovery from the health and economic crisis, when the state of emergency will end. The hope of the international community, represented in this case by the words of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and by the President of the ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights, is that the recovery will coincide with the restoration of normalcy, with respect for the rights and freedoms of all citizens.

 

Article edited by Gabriel Zurlo Sconosciuto.

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Redazione published in Asean, Politics and strategy

La rilevanza del Mar Cinese Meridionale

Con l’abbondanza di risorse naturali e la sua posizione strategica questo mare è diventato il teatro di un teso scontro regionale

Il Mar Cinese Meridionale è al centro di un lungo e complesso scontro geopolitico che coinvolge diversi Paesi del Sud-Est asiatico, la Cina e altre potenze globali tra cui gli Stati Uniti. L’area è infatti incredibilmente ricca di risorse naturali con riserve di circa 11 miliardi di barili di petrolio, oltre 50 trilioni m³ di gas naturale e il 10% delle riserve ittiche mondiali. L’elemento più importante, tuttavia, è che il 30% del commercio marittimo mondiale transita nel Mar Cinese Meridionale, conferendo una cruciale rilevanza geopolitica alla regione. Si tratta dunque di uno specchio d’acqua di fondamentale importanza strategica, e diversi Paesi nella regione avanzano rivendicazioni territoriali, spesso contrastanti.

Nel cuore geografico e simbolico del Mar Cinese Meridionale ci sono diversi arcipelaghi di isole remote e disabitate, rivendicate da Cina, Vietnam, Filippine, Malesia, Taiwan e Brunei. Per molti di questi Paesi, l’accesso alle risorse di quest’area potrebbe rivelarsi fondamentale nel lungo periodo. Chi riuscisse a fare valere le proprie rivendicazioni territoriali su queste isole potrebbe includerle nella propria zona economica esclusiva, ottenendo diritti esclusivi su tutto il territorio e dunque il sottosuolo circostante.

La maggior parte di questi Paesi basa le proprie rivendicazioni sulla Convenzione delle Nazioni Unite sul diritto del mare, ma la Cina sembra avere una posizione diversa, in contrasto con la comunità internazionale. Pechino avanza una rivendicazione storica sul Mar Cinese Meridionale che risale ad alcune esplorazioni navali del XV secolo. Il governo cinese individua i propri confini nell’area compresa all’interno della linea tratteggiata, la famosa “nine-dash line”, tracciata alla fine della Seconda Guerra Mondiale e comprendente circa il 90% del conteso specchio d’acqua.

Negli ultimi anni, la Cina ha portato avanti una politica di potenza volta a imporre le proprie rivendicazioni territoriali con la costruzione di isole artificiali, basi militari e distretti amministrativi, scatenando le proteste delle nazioni coinvolte. Le mosse di Pechino non hanno solo indispettito i Paesi della regione, ma anche la comunità internazionale, con gli Stati Uniti in testa. Gli USA hanno grossi interessi geopolitici nella regione, e sono dunque interessati a contenere le ambizioni di Pechino e a rafforzare il proprio ruolo di potenza militare e geopolitica nell’area del Pacifico.

Meccanismi di risoluzione delle dispute internazionali hanno più volte contestato l’approccio cinese nella regione, cercando di proteggere i diritti territoriali legittimi di Paesi più piccoli, come le Filippine o il Vietnam. Ma la Cina sembra trascurare le risoluzioni delle Corti internazionali e pare determinata a non retrocedere, paventando anche l’uso della forza per affermare le proprie rivendicazioni.

Finora le dispute nel Mar Cinese Meridionale non hanno preso una piega violenta, ma si sono limitate alla sfera politica e diplomatica. Dal 2017, la Cina e i Paesi ASEAN hanno deciso di provare a risolvere la contesa sul piano diplomatico, attraverso la redazione di un Codice di Condotta per il Mar Cinese Meridionale, ovvero un sistema regolatore per risolvere le dispute nella regione. Tuttavia, l’accordo è ancora lontano dalla sua conclusione, e le difficoltà che stanno emergendo non sono poche.

I Paesi coinvolti tendono sempre più a difendere le proprie rivendicazioni militarizzando la regione e provocandosi a vicenda, con gravi rischi per tutta l’area. È una situazione complessa che continuerà ad attirare l’attenzione della comunità internazionale, evidenziando segnali importanti sull’atteggiamento geopolitico della Cina nei prossimi anni e il suo rapporto con i Paesi del Sud-Est asiatico.

 

Article edited by Tullio Ambrosone.

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Redazione published in Asean, Economy and trade, Philippines

L’outsourcing nelle Filippine

Come le Filippine sono diventate un hub del BPO

Il Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) è uno dei settori in più rapida crescita nelle Filippine, al punto da rappresentare uno dei tre pilastri dell’economia del paese, insieme alle rimesse inviate dai lavoratori filippini all’estero ed al turismo.

La crescita del BPO nelle Filippine ha mostrato infatti un tasso di espansione medio annuo del 20% nel corso dello scorso decennio. Secondo i dati dell’Oxford Business Group, il settore rappresentava solo lo 0,075% del PIL nel 2000, dato cresciuto progressivamente fino a raggiungere il 12% nel 2019.

Secondo gli ultimi dati del governo filippino l’industria del BPO impiega 1,35 milioni di lavoratori, la maggior parte dei quali (87,6%) nei call center, mentre quasi il 12% lavora in aziende di computer e servizi informatici. Nell’ultimo anno, è emerso un forte trend di crescita anche del segmento del Data Analytics.

La Roadmap 2016-2022 della IT and Business Process Association of the Philippines (IBPAP) si pone tuttavia obiettivi di crescita ancora maggiori per il settore, puntando a toccare – entro un paio di anni – 1,8 milioni di persone occupate, 40 miliardi di dollari di fatturato complessivo e una quota del 15% nel mercato globale del BPO.

Il settore BPO è fortemente internazionalizzato nelle Filippine: il 55% delle aziende opera a livello globale (il 65% delle quali esporta verso gli Stati Uniti), il 27% a livello regionale e solo il 18% all’interno del Paese. Sono tre le ragioni principali per cui le Filippine sono riuscite a diventare un hub internazionale del BPO.

In primo luogo, il governo filippino si è attivato fin dai primi anni 2000 per incentivare gli investitori ad esternalizzare nel Paese. Ha infatti messo in atto diverse politiche liberali, inclusi benefici fiscali e misure di semplificazione nelle procedure in materia di occupazione.

Il secondo aspetto riguarda il bilinguismo. Oltre al filippino, gli studenti imparano fin da subito l’American English. La padronanza della lingua inglese e l’affinità con la cultura occidentale conferiscono alle Filippine un vantaggio concorrenziale rispetto ai suoi diretti competitors nel BPO, come l’India.

Infine, il salario medio dei lavoratori filippini nel settore è meno della metà di quello delle loro controparti nei paesi occidentali. Gli Stati Uniti ed altre imprese anglofone sfruttano questo fattore per abbassare i loro costi fissi.

Nonostante la crisi legata al COVID-19 abbia avuto un impatto negativo e rallentato la crescita del BPO nelle Filippine, le multinazionali straniere non hanno abbandonato il paese. Se la crisi continuerà a favorire la domanda di servizi telematici è infatti probabile che il settore riprenda presto la propria traiettoria positiva di crescita.

Articolo a cura di Amiel Masarap e Maria Viola.

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Redazione published in Asean, Economy and trade

Gli equilibri commerciali in Asia ai tempi del Covid-19

Nel primo trimestre del 2020 l’ASEAN è risultato il primo partner commerciale della Cina

Negli ultimi anni il panorama commerciale globale ha subito profonde trasformazioni che hanno contribuito a produrre nuove e significative dinamiche economiche nel continente asiatico.

Fino a qualche anno fa, prima della guerra commerciale tra USA e Cina e prima dello scoppio della pandemia, Unione Europea e Stati Uniti erano rispettivamente il primo e il secondo partner commerciale della Repubblica Popolare Cinese. Oggi invece, nel bel mezzo di una crisi sanitaria ed economica globale, l’ASEAN ha scavalcato UE e USA ed è risultato il maggior partner commerciale della Cina nel primo trimestre del 2020. Secondo l’Amministrazione generale cinese delle dogane, nei primi tre mesi di quest’anno, il commercio bilaterale totale tra ASEAN e Cina è aumentato del 6,1% su base annua a 140,62 miliardi di dollari, nonostante l’emergenza sanitaria.

Diversi elementi sono intervenuti a produrre questo scenario, con cambiamenti profondi per tutto il sistema commerciale e per gli equilibri di potere globali.

Sul versante europeo, ha sicuramente influito la Brexit. La Gran Bretagna rappresentava infatti circa il 10% degli scambi commerciali tra UE e Cina. Con la sua uscita dall’Unione dunque, i Paesi europei hanno perso una quota significativa del rapporto commerciale con la Cina, che ha influito pesantemente sui dati aggregati relativi al commercio UE-Cina.

Dall’altra parte dell’Oceano Atlantico, invece, la guerra commerciale avviata dall’amministrazione di Donald Trump ha contribuito in maniera decisiva al deterioramento dei rapporti commerciali tra USA e Cina, scatenando diversi effetti collaterali. Non sono cambiati solo i rapporti tra Washington e Pechino, le tensioni commerciali hanno finito per spingere molte aziende a trasferire capacità produttive dalla Cina ai Paesi del Sud-Est asiatico, rinforzando catene di valore e sistemi produttivi regionali. Lo scontro con gli USA ha anche indotto le autorità cinesi a rafforzare i legami economici e diplomatici con i partner del continente asiatico, mettendo i Paesi ASEAN in una posizione di primo piano, date le dimensioni del blocco commerciale.

Inoltre, la gravità dello shock economico causato dalla pandemia di COVID-19 ha contribuito ad acuire tali trasformazioni, mettendo in crisi il sistema economico e commerciale globale. Secondo le stime del Fondo Monetario Internazionale, i Paesi più colpiti a livello economico sono quelli occidentali, in Europa e Nord America, mettendo Paesi come quelli del Sud-Est asiatico nelle condizioni di guadagnare terreno a livello commerciale. Inoltre, rafforzando le dinamiche scaturite dalla guerra commerciale, le misure restrittive attuate dai governi per limitare i contagi stanno inducendo molte aziende a rivedere le catene di produzione e fornitura, favorendo soluzioni regionali a scapito di meccanismi globali.

Sembra dunque che le trasformazioni degli ultimi anni stiano spingendo il continente asiatico verso maggiori forme di cooperazione economica e commerciale. Cina e ASEAN sono oggi più vicine dal punto di vista economico e diplomatico di quanto non lo fossero qualche anno fa. Lo scenario resta complesso e indefinito, sarà fondamentale seguire l’evolversi della situazione nei prossimi mesi per capire la portata dei cambiamenti in corso e analizzarne l’impatto a livello globale.

Article edited by Tullio Ambrosone

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Redazione published in Asean, Politics and strategy

Emergenza COVID-19: le opportunità per l’ASEAN

Smart working ASEAN

Nonostante la gravità della crisi, si aprono scenari interessanti

Anche nei Paesi del Sud-Est asiatico l’epidemia di coronavirus sta avendo un impatto significativo: diverse aree sono in isolamento, i grandi eventi sono stati annullati o rinviati, le strutture mediche sono in difficoltà e il sistema economico ne sta risentendo. Tuttavia, la grave emergenza sanitaria ed economica che i Paesi ASEAN stanno affrontando sta aprendo nuovi scenari, che potrebbero recare alcuni benefici nel lungo termine.

Le aziende stanno iniziando a diversificare le loro catene produttive, spostando investimenti e capitali dalla Cina verso i Paesi del Sud-Est asiatico. Anche prima della pandemia, tensioni politiche come la guerra commerciale tra Washington e Pechino, stavano spingendo le grandi compagnie a dirottare le catene di produzione dalla Cina a Paesi terzi, ma l’emergenza sanitaria ha finito per accelerare questo trend. Nel tentativo di diversificare la produzione infatti, grandi aziende come Google e Microsoft trasferiranno le attività di fabbricazione di nuovi telefoni, computer e altri dispositivi dalla Cina a Vietnam e Thailandia. Altri giganti come Sony e Nokia investiranno in Indonesia, mentre Samsung sta puntando sul Vietnam. Questi esempi non solo dimostrano l’intenzione delle grandi aziende di evitare la dipendenza dalla Cina e scommettere sulle economie del Sud-Est asiatico, ma rivelano anche una grande opportunità per la regione di sviluppare maggiori competenze nel settore della produzione tecnologica.

La crisi sanitaria, che obbliga i Paesi a imporre misure di distanziamento sociale, sta anche trasformando il mondo del lavoro. Sta cambiando infatti anche la mentalità imprenditoriale, che si sta adattando al contesto di crisi e sta sfruttando la tecnologia per affrontare le limitazioni ai movimenti e il distanziamento sociale. Aziende come CoXplore o AngkorHub, specializzate in co-working e piattaforme di smart-working, stanno crescendo in maniera significativa negli ultimi mesi, evidenziando un trend che potrebbe sopravvivere alla crisi. Specialmente nel Sud-Est asiatico, regione densamente popolata, queste start-up hanno il potenziale per trasformare l’approccio al lavoro e numerose aziende sono pronte a investire in questa direzione, anche dopo l’emergenza.

L’isolamento di migliaia di persone, inoltre, sta offrendo grandi occasioni al crescente settore del ride-hailing nel Sud-Est asiatico. Aziende come Grab e Gojek stanno intensificando le proprie attività nei Paesi ASEAN, con l’obiettivo di fornire servizi di consegna a domicilio a più persone possibile durante l’emergenza. Altri settori, come quello della vendita di prodotti alimentari online, stanno crescendo nella regione, aprendo nuovi scenari non solo per le aziende, ma anche per i lavoratori.

Ancora una volta dunque un momento di crisi sta offrendo opportunità e dando vita a nuove tendenze economiche e sociali. Nonostante il contesto di grande tensione, la crisi del sistema sta avviando trasformazioni che porteranno benefici nel lungo termine. Sarà interessante continuare a seguire l’evoluzione della situazione per identificare nuovi trend e capire che volto avrà la regione del Sud-Est asiatico dopo questa epocale crisi sanitaria ed economica.

Article edited by Tullio Ambrosone

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Redazione published in Asean, Economy and trade

Has BRI been infected?

The impact of Covid-19 on ASEAN countries, through interrupted supplies and quarantined workers.

The Covid-19, after the spread in China and the consequent severe restrictive measures, has also spread in ASEAN countries. That resulted in the shutdown of several productive establishments (as it happened in Cambodia for more than two-hundreds factories, which had their productivity interrupted because of the lack of Chinese raw materials). Furthermore, it caused the halt of important infrastructural projects, including those related to the Belt and Road Initiative, (BRI; the Chinese strategic project aimed to connect the Country and its economic partners through new strategical roads, railways and maritime thoroughfares)

ASEAN authorities are beginning to assess the damages due to the Coronavirus. Delays on BRI related projects, in particular, could hamper economic recovery in the next months.

In Indonesia, the Coordinating Minister of Maritime and Investment Affairs announced the delay of the 6 billion high speed railway that will link Jakarta to Bandung: 50% of the materials and 20% of the workers are from China. The construction of the 510 MW hydropower plant in Batang Toru was interrupted too.

Delays are also occurring in Cambodia, where BRI rendered Sihanoukville special economic zone, in the province of Preah Sihanouk, with the purpose of creating an ideal investment platform for companies in the ASEAN area. The project is suffering from a gradual lack of supplies from China, and it is seeing the offices of Chinese leaders remain empty. That will result in a further prolongation of the construction time and it will exponentially increase the costs. However, The Cambodian leader Hun Sen stays positive, hoping that the fabrication will resume after the first quarter of the year.

In Malaysia, up until one month ago, Malaysia Rail Link assured that the East Coast Rail Link – which is worth 10.4 billions and which will link Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya to east coast states such as Pahang, Terengganu and Kelantan - wouldn’t have been subject of any delay. Due to the current decisions taken by Malaysian government, which put the state in a total lockdown, at least for the next 14 days it is not excluded that slowdowns or temporary interruptions will occur for the project, which is currently completed at 15% .

Instead, the virus is not slowing the China-Laos Railway down, due to be ready for 2021, that will transform Laos from a landlocked country into a terrestrial hub. The central administration had already decided not to interrupt for the Spring Festival: officials and workers have stayed on the construction site, sheltered from the Covid outbreak. Moreover, Chinese and Laotian engineers are starting to lay the foundations of the electricity line, the first BOT (build- operate-transfer) electricity grid in Laos, which will supply the railway.

BRI has a targeted completion date of 2049, but even this date seems to waver as the virus’s impact on economy will be felt for many years to come.

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Articole edited by Gabriel Zurlo Sconosciuto

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