Global Lens

In the new international context marked by the confrontation between the USA and China, ASEAN and the EU can play a crucial role in avoiding conflict and promoting global cooperation

The current international landscape is heavily influenced by the growing competition between the US and China. This rivalry extends beyond trade and economics into areas of technology, military prowess, and geopolitical influence.

The recent summit in California showcased the deep-rooted and complex nature of US-China relations. Presidents Xi and Biden, representing the world's two largest economies, engaged in extensive discussions on a range of contentious issues. However, the summit concluded with several key disputes unresolved, highlighting the persistent friction between the two nations especially on trade and geopolitical issues, with reference to the situation in Taiwan and in the South China Sea.

The rivalry between the US and China occurs against a backdrop of global instability marked by conflicts like the war in Ukraine and in the Middle East. This environment has led to a decline in international trust and cooperation, raising concerns about a potential return to Cold War-era bloc politics. Such a division into spheres of influence would be detrimental, particularly for the EU and ASEAN, which have thrived in a more open and cooperative international system.

The EU and ASEAN, with significant differences in terms of history and socio-political context, share a core objective: promoting regional market integration to achieve peace, stability, and prosperity. However, the integrative model they champion is now under threat from global tensions that challenge the integrity of common markets and the cohesion of the development model of these organizations. The ongoing US-China trade war, marked by the imposition of tariffs and trade barriers, serves as a prime example of how external geopolitical tensions can significantly disrupt internal market dynamics within the EU and ASEAN. 

Despite the grim outlook, there are substantial opportunities for both the EU and ASEAN in the current geopolitical climate. Both the EU and ASEAN possess significant market attractiveness that can be leveraged to influence the US-China dynamic. The EU, with its GDP of over $15 trillion and a population of about 450 million (with an enlargement in sight), represents one of the largest single markets in the world. On the other hand, ASEAN, with a combined GDP of approximately $3 trillion and a population exceeding 650 million (of which around 60% is under 35), is one of the fastest-growing regions globally. These economic conditions position both the EU and ASEAN uniquely to mediate and potentially influence the strategic decisions of the US and China, especially in areas of trade policy and regional security.

The EU and ASEAN can play a crucial role in developing a more stable multipolar world order, moving away from bipolar tensions. This involves not only strengthening their internal cohesion but also enhancing inter-regional cooperation. By consolidating their relations and by investing in market integration, these blocs can assert a more balanced and influential role in international affairs.

Joint diplomatic and trade initiatives between the EU and ASEAN can be pivotal in balancing the influence of the US and China, focusing primarily on enhancing trade and economic integration. The EU and ASEAN should start working on a comprehensive trade framework with the aim of reducing tariffs and regulatory barriers. Such an agreement, extended to encompass the entire ASEAN region, would create one of the world's largest free trade areas, diversifying trade relations and reducing overreliance on the US and China. Establishing joint standards in areas like product safety, intellectual property, and sustainable trade practices could be strategically very useful. This would not only align the EU and ASEAN markets more closely but also set an example for global trade standards, independent of the US and China's influence, and enhance their collective bargaining power and strategic position in the global market.

In conclusion, the EU and ASEAN are at a pivotal point in the evolving global landscape, marked by the US-China rivalry and broader international tensions. While they face significant challenges, these regional blocs also possess unique opportunities to influence the global order. By leveraging their economic strength, advocating for a multipolar world, and enhancing inter-regional cooperation, the EU and ASEAN can play a vital role in fostering a more balanced and peaceful international system. Their actions and decisions in the coming years will be crucial in shaping the trajectory of global politics and in ensuring the stability and prosperity of their respective regions.

In an effort to respond to regional needs, the 10 members of the Organization are currently developing the ASEAN Climate Finance Access and Mobilization Strategy, a tool designed to harmonize the use of frameworks and structures for monitoring financial flows

By Sibeles Chiari

With less than a month to go before COP28 in Dubai, expectations are rising about reaching a transformative agreement that will move humanity away from catastrophic scenarios. Significantly alarming is the situation in the Southeast Asian region, home to as many as 6 of the 20 states identified as most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change: the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam. Concerns based on forecasts heralding greater economic losses than anywhere else in the world, with an estimated 11 percent decline in GDP by 2100. In fact, only with copious increases in climate finance and a concerted effort by governments, investors, central banks and financial regulators will economic and human losses be limited. An effort that, globally, will need to generate some $2.4 trillion in total annual investment by 2030 to succeed in sustaining emerging markets. Indeed, at the Dubai summit, climate finance will be at the center of the policy debate because, mobilizing financial resources and activating innovative financing mechanisms (e.g., Loss and Damage fund) will play a key role in combating climate change and accelerating toward a more sustainable economy. That being said, it is not surprising that the dynamics related to the climate finance discipline will have an increasing impact on the performance of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies.

Throughout the various UNFCCC COPs, ASEAN nations have continually urged the more industrialized countries to meet their 2009 commitment to provide $100 billion per year to developing countries by 2020. A commitment that has been more verbal than real, considering that between 2000 and 2019, ASEAN countries received $56 billion from developed countries. While European states such as Germany and France have contributed 11.8 percent and 8.4 percent, respectively, of total bilateral climate funding to the region, Japan has allocated as much as 65 percent. Indeed, the influence of the Japanese country, which jointly launched the SPACE program with ASEAN members to combat climate change, pollution and biodiversity loss, stands out. Additional climate funding also comes from China, which ranks as the main provider of South-South flows, followed by India. As well as from ASEAN countries themselves with their contributions to the mobilization of Green Climate Fund (GCF) resources. Of course, in the context of climate finance, there is no shortage of substantial support from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (AIB), as the largest multilateral provider of climate finance to the region.

Over the past decade, more than half of all climate finance provided to the region has gone to the transportation and storage (32 percent), energy (26 percent) and agriculture, forestry and fisheries (9 percent) sectors. It is also worth highlighting the high growth recorded in other sectors, such as health (+427 percent), business and various services (+336 percent) and emergency response (+218 percent). Looking at the ASEAN space, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam received the highest share of funding, and indeed, most of the funds went to the transport, energy, and agriculture sectors. For example: Vietnam has attracted significant investment in wind and solar power; Indonesia has received funding and international support for initiatives to combat deforestation and promote reforestation through the REDD+ program; as well as the recently concluded loan agreements between the Philippines and the World Bank worth $876 million to finance three sustainable agriculture projects (MIADP, FISHCORE and PRDP). With data in hand, Asia receives the highest share of climate finance among all regions of the world. No doubt this is a figure that inspires optimism, although the per capita share of Southeast Asian countries remains the lowest. Finally, in an effort to address regional needs, the 10 members of the Organization are currently developing the ASEAN Climate Finance Access and Mobilization Strategy, a tool aimed at harmonizing the use of frameworks and structures for monitoring financial flows. Therefore, this strategy will accelerate investment in the implementation of mitigation and adaptation actions based on the needs identified by member states. An initiative that will facilitate access to climate finance by pursuing the health of our dear planet as the ultimate goal and common hope among all of us.

ASEAN and the Gulf Cooperation Council are considering a potential free trade agreement, a topic moreover addressed two years ago by the Italy-ASEAN Association in Dubai. Here we publish an excerpt from the joint communiqué issued at the end of the bilateral summit on Friday, October 20

Inspired by the common interests and deeply rooted historical ties between the two sides, the leaders exchanged views on common regional and international issues and discussed ways to improve and develop their partnership to take advantage of the growth opportunities that can be exploited through cooperation between the two regions, based on the shared visions for the future of their partnership and the values embodied in the United Nations Charter. The leaders pledge to:

1. Join efforts to promote peace, security, stability and prosperity through mutual respect and cooperation among countries and regions to achieve development and progress and maintain the international order based on rules and adherence to the UN Charter.
2. Undertake consultations and explore cooperation on specific areas of common interest to implement the four priority areas of the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP): maritime cooperation, connectivity, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), economic.
3. Recognize the importance of the oceans and seas as key factors in the region's growth and prosperity, and reaffirm the importance of maintaining and promoting peace, stability, maritime security, freedom of navigation and overflight in the region, and other legitimate uses of the seas and legitimate and unimpeded maritime trade, as well as promoting the peaceful settlement of disputes, in accordance with universally recognized principles of international law, including the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
4. Strengthen ties between the two sides, multilaterally and bilaterally, and in global forums, pursuing opportunities for sustainable development, peace, security and stability, and to address global and regional challenges and risks; to ensure sustainable supply chains, transport interconnection, and strengthen food, energy and water security, as well as build cooperation on green and renewable energy sources and technologies, tourism infrastructure, and creation of energy sources.
5. Conduct further consultations to explore new opportunities for trade, investment and technical cooperation between ASEAN and the GCC, including the possibility of developing a framework agreement on economic, trade and investment cooperation.

Full text here.

Green Diplomacy Week 2023 kicks off in partnership between the European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Here is the program

EU-ASEAN Green Diplomacy Week 2023 kicks off on Sunday, October 15. First introduced to the public in 2019, Climate Diplomacy Week has become a landmark annual event where delegations and embassies of EU member states around the world host events to promote dialogue and cooperation on climate change. The theme is particularly important in the context of cooperation with the ASEAN bloc. Called "Green Diplomacy Week" this year, the event still aims to serve as a platform to showcase success stories and inspire further action. In late 2022, the EU launched the Global Gateway strategy, a new global strategy to build resilient connections with the world, with sustainable connectivity and green transitions as two main pillars. In this context, Green Diplomacy Week 2023 will also be an opportunity to continue the momentum of the new global strategy. A series of online, offline and hybrid events are planned. Events will include panel discussions, exhibitions and clean-up sessions, as well as a fun walk/run/bike ride. Events will focus on engaging youth and the ASEAN public. A total of 10 events (online, offline and hybrid) will be organized by the EU Communication and Visibility for ASEAN project in collaboration with EU delegations in ASEAN member states, EU-ASEAN partners, communities and youth organizations in ASEAN member states. Among the events included in the program: a workshop on plastic waste recycling organized with Thailand, a 2-day learning camp for "young nature guardians" in the Philippines, a series of waste management education meetings in Malaysia, and interactive presentations and games for indigenous school children in the Pu Mat forest in Vietnam. Also on the agenda are very concrete activities such as cleaning a river in Brunei and a photography and artwork competition in Laos. Concluding on Sunday, October 22, with a Mekong River shoreline cleanup and tree planting in Cambodia.

The 43rd summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations took place in Jakarta, Indonesia. Several agreements were signed inside and outside the group

Editorial by Lorenzo Lamperti

Still united despite differences. Joko Widodo, President of Indonesia and host of the 43rd ASEAN summit, called the bloc of Southeast Asian countries this. A bloc not in the geopolitical sense of the term, since ASEAN more than any other promotes a third way made up of not competition but, if anything, cooperation. Inside and outside the Association, as shown by the results achieved during the summit held in recent days in Jakarta. At least 93 projects, with a total value of $38.2 billion, were identified at the ASEAN Indo-Pacific Forum, a platform for the bloc's members to mobilize public and private financing and promote deeper economic cooperation. They included industrial, infrastructure and energy transition plans. Another 73 potential opportunities worth $17.8 billion were also discussed. Adopted statements on gender equality, sustainability, agricultural cooperation, food security and climate change. In addition, during the ASEAN +3 meeting, which in addition to the Southeastern countries also includes China, Japan, and South Korea, it was agreed to work together to develop an electric vehicle ecosystem. A crucial issue for economic and technological development in the near future, with an eye on sustainability. And, above all, an area in which Southeast Asia looks set to play a leading role. That's not all. With Beijing, in the presence of Premier Li Qiang, a joint ASEAN-China statement on mutually beneficial cooperation in the Indo-Pacific was issued. With Beijing, the renewal of the free trade agreement by 2024 and major new investments on the strategic microchip sector are also discussed. Interesting results on the bilateral level as well. The Philippines signed a free trade agreement with South Korea, while Indonesia asked the United States to start talks on a trade agreement on mineral resources. On the diplomatic front, Australia has announced that it will host ASEAN leaders in Melbourne next March for a special summit to mark 50 years of relations. In the background, but not overly so, the Myanmar crisis remains unresolved, on which the 2021 5-point consensus review has been prepared. Tensions over the South China Sea also remain, partly because of the competition between China and the United States. Competition in which, as Widodo reiterated in his closing remarks, ASEAN plays a role as a "theater of peace and inclusion."

The Italian diplomat prepares to leave Hanoi. His farewell meetings as told by Vietnamese media

In Vietnam since November 2018, Italian Ambassador Antonio Alessandro paid two important farewell visits last week. Specifically to the Chairman of the Hanoi People's Committee, Tran Sy Thanh, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bui Thanh Son. "Over the years, people-to-people exchanges have fostered mutual trust and understanding between Vietnam and Italy in general, and between Hanoi and Rome in particular, paving the way for extensive cooperation in the economic, trade and investment fields," said Tran Sy Thanh. As told by the Hanoi Times, he then expressed gratitude to the ambassador for his valuable insights and acknowledged his contribution to the overall development of bilateral relations between the two nations. With a commitment to promoting cooperation, Tran Sy Thanh assured that the local government will continue to facilitate the activities of the Italian Embassy in Hanoi by creating favorable conditions. The Vietnamese media reports that "during the meeting, Ambassador Antonio Alessandro expressed his deep gratitude and sense of belonging after serving in Vietnam for more than four years, saying he feels like a citizen of Hanoi." Alessandro went on to say that the Italian Embassy has received excellent support and cooperation from the Hanoi People's Committee, which has led to remarkable achievements in the various fields of cooperation between Vietnam and Italy, ranging from culture and society to economy, trade and tourism. Bilateral trade between Vietnam and Italy has seen positive growth, with Italian companies participating more and more actively in the Southeast Asian country's market. The Ambassador then anticipated new progress in relations between Vietnam, Hanoi and several Italian localities. Initiatives such as the Memorandum of Understanding on cooperation between Rome and Hanoi and Rome's bid to host EXPO 2030 offer promising prospects for greater cooperation. All this while just this year marks the 50th anniversary of the establishment of official diplomatic relations. Concluding his speech, the Hanoi Times reports, "Alexander said that although his term is now over, his affection and bond with Hanoi and Vietnam will last indefinitely." 

The effects of rising temperatures on the Himalayas in a new report: the continent's main water supply risks running dry in 2100. With consequences for an area where the Yangtze and Yellow River, Indus, Ganges and Mekong are born

Asia will lose its main water reserve by 2100. This is the alarm raised by researchers at the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) in Kathmandu, who in their latest report predict a reduction in the Himalayan glaciers up to 80% of the current volume. The estimate is based on forecasts of a 4C rise in global temperatures, well beyond the limits promised by the Paris climate accord but close to actual projections unless significant action is taken.

The Hindu Kush area, object of the research, hosts what is today the largest ice reserve in the world after the two Poles. Here there are 15 thousand glaciers for a total of 100 thousand square kilometers of surface, from where the Yangtze and the Yellow River begin their journey, as well as the Indus, the Ganges and the Mekong. An area so vast as to directly affect the 240 million people who live on the plateau and another 1.65 billion along the river basins. 

According to ICIMOD forecasts, the melting of the glaciers will cause a peak in the water supply to the valley by the middle of the century, and then slowly begin to decline. From that moment on, the availability of water will begin to decrease and there will no longer be sufficient reserves upstream for the maintenance of local ecosystems.

From the dependence of energy systems on hydroelectricity to the instability of water resources for agriculture, the melting of glaciers will have and already has an epochal impact on the continent. This is in a region where 80% of rainfall is concentrated in the four months of the monsoon season, today increasingly intense, short and hot. In 2021, the president of the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction Mami Mizutori called drought "the next pandemic". Too bad, he added, that there is no vaccine for drought. 

Water scarcity comes into play in an area where investment in hydroelectricity has exploded over the past two decades. One hundred dams are now operational in the sixteen countries reached by the waters coming from the plateau, while another 650 dams are expected to be built in the next few years. Enthusiasm for the opportunities stemming from this seemingly sustainable source was soon dampened by record heat waves year after year. A prolonged peak in temperatures which, as has been happening in Vietnam for over five weeks, has led to the gradual closure of some of the country's main hydroelectric plants.

But the attractiveness of water resources to support the rampant energy demand of new industrial centers has generated very different narratives in the community of international investors. From the Irrawaddy for Myanmar to the Mekong for Laos, there are many companies and institutions that would like to take the opportunity to transform these countries into the "batteries of Asia". The water potential of Asia's major rivers is often referred to as a "missed opportunity" or "largely underexploited".

A gradual conversion of global supply chains in South Asia and Southeast Asia is contributing to this due to rising Chinese labor costs and international tensions. No less important are the tax breaks adopted by governments to attract foreign investors, as well as the numerous trade agreements. All measures that are expanding access to Asian markets and, by facilitating regional exchanges, make it possible to relocate an entire production chain on the basis of the fiscal or economic benefits of the various countries.

The contraction of the polar ice cap is to energy exploration in the northern seas what the melting of glaciers is to Beijing's infrastructure and mining ambitions. In fact, it is the People's Republic, in particular, that is betting on the growing accessibility of the Himalayan plateau. Recently some researchers have identified a vein of rare earths that could extend for a thousand kilometers along the southern border of Tibet, a factor that could both strengthen China's dominant position on one of the most strategic markets of our time, as well as re-emerge tensions with neighboring India.

In fact, a greater presence of human activities on the Himalayan plateau is already bringing to light the territorial claims of the various governments of the region. This is the case of the Tibetan county of Lhunze, one of the largest rare earth basins located in an area still contested by India and where infrastructure investments more than doubled between 2016 and 2019. The escalation of a conflict linked both to new mineral resources may soon be just the preview of a more bitter battle for water resources. Barring the Indus Waters Treaty signed by India and Pakistan, there is no regional mechanism dedicated to the redistribution and rights to use the waters of rivers flowing through multiple Asian states. 

The massive presence of Chinese dams upstream of the Mekong is just one example of how marginal the water emergency is still considered which, sooner or later, will no longer be just a problem for a few farmers. Its marginality, the report concludes, is also due to the lack of knowledge on ecosystems beyond data: the human dimension, underlines the document, is essential for understanding what consequences and what solutions are being put in place. Local populations are adapting, but they are doing so through autonomous and small-scale forms of support and redefinition. But the climate crisis is transboundary, and its effects on the already complex relationships between the actors of the region are - still - to be seen.